Mortgage rates were basically unchanged last week as 2023 came to an end.

Mortgage rates will need help from labor market data to improve this week. Signs of a softening labor market in this week's data would support expectations of future Fed rate cuts, which would help mortgage rates to improve at least a little bit. However, if we instead see signs of labor market strength from the data this week it could cause rates to creep slightly higher, especially on Friday.

- Economic data: This week brings multiple reports about the labor market, starting on Wednesday with the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey. Thursday brings the ADP payroll report and unemployment claims, with Friday's new job creation and unemployment numbers being most likely to affect mortgage rates.

- The Fed: Mortgage rates continue to reflect the belief that the Fed will need to cut rates six times in 2024, although Fed officials have been saying it will be less. If markets start to waiver in the belief that the Fed will cut rates dramatically this year to avoid a recession, we could see mortgage rates creep higher.